Cirios Real Estate

Fannie and Freddie Have Been "Saved" -- Now What?

2008-09-09T13:16:00.001-04:00

The former Goldman Sachs employees -- err, the government -- have decided to bail out Fannie and Freddie and the race to call another bottom in equity markets, not to mention housing, is on.

Reality, however, is not a friend of these hopeful bulls.

Let's take a quick scan of the economic landscape and see what issues the latest bailout has solved:

The unemployment rate seems to only be going up, and unless the new federal agency charged with keeping tabs on the two mortgage giants is hiring en masse, there won't be much of a change here.
The dollar could see its recent rally erased after our trading partners and investors around the world come to terms with the $200 billion the Treasury department just dumped into the blender to cut 50 bps off mortgage rates. And, take note, those are prime, Agency rates, and that's it.
The unfortunate reality is that most Americans are still in debt and cannot afford a down payment on a house, a requirement that's yet to be removed.
Gas prices have fallen, but not by as much as crude prices. Hurricane season is alive and well, threatening most of the gulf oil rigs. Oil companies are already under pressure from tumultuous markets for their black gold and are not likely inclined to lower prices further.

As painful as it is to admit, Fannie and Freddie probably needed to be bailed out to keep the entire financial market from collapsing but it doesn’t mean we are at “the bottom.”

It takes awhile for a fundamental shift in lending to play its way out and that is what we are in the middle of. The middle class is being squeezed more than ever and consumer credit quality on the whole is not going to start improving tomorrow.

More important than any of these points is we do not know what our friends at the government are going to do with Fannie and Fredie and how long it is going to take them to do it. In fact, trusting the very folks who ran these companies into the ground -- albeit under different leadership -- to turn them around is hardly a comforting proposition.

In the end, we need to remember that you need a good credit score and a down payment to buy a house in the real world. So no matter what a television analyst on TV who makes $500,000 a year tells you, this credit crisis is far from over.

A Housing Solution that Focuses on (Gasp!) Houses

2008-09-02T13:25:00.002-04:00

This post first appeared on Minyanville and our sister site, Dawn Patrol.

Every once in a while, the most important news story of the day is the one the Wall Street Journal allots a mere 200 words.

In a move that will soon be greeted with quiet mutterings of “I should have seen this coming,” British Prime Minister Gordon Blair announced today a shift in the focus of initiatives aimed at reviving the ailing housing industry, and by extension the rest of the economy.

Until this point, much of the government-directed efforts to fix broken housing markets -- both here and abroad -- have focused on the mortgage side of housing transactions.

This should come as no surprise, as Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs (GS), Merrill Lynch (MER), Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Bear Stearns -- er, JPMorgan (JPM) -- had staked their reputations -- and balance sheets -- on those mortgages.

Foreclosure prevention has attempted to preserve the integrity of the loan by extending its ability to keep generating cash for the lender. If a family or 2 were helped in the process, all the better. But with trillions of dollars in securities propping up the world's financial system based on unreliable monthly payments from struggling American consumers, the mortgage was saved in favor of the property itself or its inhabitants.

HOPE NOW and Project Lifeline have been our bureaucrats’ best effort at leeping people from being kicked out of their homes. Anecdotally and by the numbers, the results have been less than awe-inspiring.

As part of a larger economic reform package, Brown is taking a decidedly different approach. Any homeowner behind on his mortgage and facing the risk of repossession will have his situation evaluated by a “money advisor,” who, according to the Guardian, will determine whether nor not the loan is worth salvaging.

If this guru of the economically unfeasible gives the thumbs-down, the borrower gets a rescue package; the government gets the house. A housing association or other publicly funded group can then lease the property back to for the former homeowner or otherwise rehab the property for new tenants.

The lender can either be made whole or can retain some of the risk (and therefore potential return) in the property, staying in the game a bit longer.

This focus on the raw asset -- the house -- rather than on a flimsy deed of trust represents a step in the right direction in the "war on foreclosures." The mere fact that Washington (and London) are dipping their tentacles this deep into housing markets should rightly disturb anyone with even half-hearted capitalistic ideals - but some government plans are better than others.

The problem with mortgage-focused foreclosure prevention is that it prolongs a borrower’s agony by keeping him in a loan he or she should never have taken out in the first place. The house itself bears the brunt of this strategy's shortcomings, since homeowners forgo maintenance, landscaping, trash removal and other value-preserving services to survive another month.

By stepping in and taking control of the property before the copper pipes can be ripped out and the repossession process can further erode the home's resale value, the plan could slow some of the economic hardship and community decay caused by abandoned, vandalized homes.

Although the business of buying and selling distressed mortgage assets -- including bank-owned homes -- is hacking its way through the world of troubled properties, the scale of the problem and the challenging nature of the transaction itself mean that the crisis will take years to work through.

If the government is going to use taxpayer dollars to try to get us out of this mess, land banks and direct funds for rebuilding communities isn't a terrible place to start.

It sure beats bailing out Wall Street.

NAR At it Again: Spin Control

2008-08-26T03:50:00.004-04:00

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released monthly housing data today that shows existing-home sales in July increased by a seasonally adjusted 3.1%. While this number may seem exciting and could be interpreted as a thaw in the housing crisis, most other data point in the opposite direction.

Deeper into the report, the NAR mentions that inventories, which currently represent 11.2 months of supply, are at highs not seen since the 1980’s. Additionally, the report states median home prices have fallen 7.1% year over year and sales volume is down 13.2% year over year. The NAR doesn’t provide month over month median price data, citing “mix of homes issues” that are conveniently overlooked in the positive sales volume data.

While this report falls short of “calling the bottom” in the housing market (a tack often taken in NAR economic reports), the NAR has once again obfuscated the true state of real estate markets by focusing on the single positive datum in the entire report.

Yes, there was a blip in sales in the past month, but in the larger picture things remain bleak. Almost 40% of sales were distressed transactions, which is hardly indicative of a market that's poised to rebound. It will take more than a single month of increased volume to convince any rational observer that things are truly on the mend.

National Association of ... Really Really Good Liars

2008-08-11T01:46:00.003-04:00

Housingwire.com reports that pending home sales levels have fallen significantly since this time last year, according to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The NAR report on the same data is titled “Pending Home Sales Rise, Wider Gains Anticipated….”

So where’s the discrepancy? How can the exact same data tell one group that things are getting worse while another group sees it as an improvement? The answer is all in how you look at it. While the NAR points out that their pending sales index was up 5.3% in June relative to May, Housingwire.com thinks it’s more appropriate to compare apples to apples and compare June data to June data. This comparison shows a 12% decline from this time last year.

Who’s right? In this case, we strongly agree with Housingwire. Home sales always make a move up in the summer months, simply as a result of cyclical pressures on the market. By comparing May to June data, the NAR has successfully pointed out this fact. However, in claiming that this increase represents a reason to project overall improvement in the housing market, the NAR is grossly over-exaggerating the importance of that particular statistic. Such spin is commonplace for the NAR, which has been propagating the “buyer’s market” fallacy since the credit crunch began by whatever means available to it. (witness the NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun's insistence the turnaround is just around the corner ... since January 2006.)

In the uncertain waters of today’s real estate markets, it’s hard to know who to turn to for objective information and analysis. Many in the media will stake a claim to objectivity, but such claims are often exaggerated at best and ludicrous at worst.

In reality, objective information is not easily found and does not come cheap. In some cases, however, it is easy to see when a particular organization’s interests do not align in the least with anything remotely approaching objective analysis. This is clearly the case with the NAR, who’s analysis and reports should be avoided like the plague by anyone actually interested in the true state of the housing markets.

Morgan Stanley Latest Band-Aid Over Fannie, Freddie's Bullet Hole

2008-08-06T14:37:00.000-04:00

This post first appeared on Minyanville and our sister site Dawn Patrol.

It looks like all those short-sellers might have been on to something.

Freddie Mac (FRE), the beleaguered mortgage giant that was just weeks ago on the brink of collapse, released second quarter results this morning that were nothing short of abysmal. Along with the financial backing of you, me and all the other US taxpayers, the government-sponsored enterprise now has:

$831 million loss or $1.63 per share, compared with net income of $729 million a year ago.
Revenue fell 28% to $1.69 billion compared to last year.
$2.5 billion in credit loss provisions and $1 billion in mortgage-related writedowns.
Board approval to slash dividends from $0.25 per share to “$0.05 or less”.
The intention to raise $5.5 billion or more in fresh capital.

Although the company currently meets capital requirements demanded by its regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, it may fall below those levels if the housing and credit markets continue to deteriorate.

Last month, shares plunged on fears that Freddie and its larger cousin Fannie Mae (FNM) would crumble under the weight of mounting losses in their massive mortgage portfolios. The Treasury Department tried to shore up confidence by demanding Congressional approval to support the 2 companies, should the need arise.

Treasury announced this week it had hired Morgan Stanley (MS) to help sort out the mess and assess the two companies’ financial positions.

It takes a very active imagination to think a company capitalized with just $37 billion to support more than $2 trillion in U.S. mortgage debt is anything resembling stable.

Although Fannie and Freddie managed to avoid buying the worst of the subprime mortgages originated during the housing boom, many equally toxic Alt-A and other non-prime loans made it onto their balance sheets. Even marginally savvy originators were able to exploit their automated underwriting and risk systems, resulting in the loss of billions of dollars from questionable loans.

Fannie and Freddie are now paying for their transgressions - or rather, the American taxpayer is paying, since Congress gave Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson what amounts to a blank check to bail out the two failed companies.

The only questions left are: When will Fannie and Freddie collapse, and what form will they take thereafter?

Many advocate for privatization, splitting the firms into several publicly traded companies. Others, mindful of the Federal government’s tendency to privatize profits and socialize losses, expect outright nationalization.

One near-certainty, irrespective of the outcome of their current crisis, is that Fannie and Freddie's ability to keep mortgages rates artificially low will be greatly reduced. That doesn't bode well for anyone considering buying a house in the next 20 years.

Housing Woosh, Part Deux

2008-07-31T13:51:00.001-04:00

This post first appeared on Minyanville and on our sister site Dawn Patrol.

Reports are out this morning opining that Stockton, California represents a new hope for housing recovery. Hoping Stockton will lead the housing recovery is about like saying Alex Smith will lead the niners to the Super Bowl. It lacks a link to reality.

The recent rise in home sales transactions, especially in high foreclosure areas, is primarily attributable to the billions of dollars raised by hedge funds and other distressed investors. They're starting to get pressure to put the money to work. It's not evidence homebuyers are stepping back into the market.

Funds are trying to arbitrage the house, buy it at 60 cents on the dollar from a desparate bank and sell it for 80 on the open market.

The problem is, the marginal homebuyer in those areas does not have the 20% down payment it now takes to buy a home, even at 'discounted' prices.

Transactions may rise, but mortgage backed securities don't pay bond holders with realtor sales commissions.

If the bottom is called by the right media outlets, sellers still waiting on the sidelines will flood the market, trying to get out in a market that's not completely frozen.

Woosh, part deux, coming to a housing market near you in early 2009.

Housing Inventory Eases, But No Recovery In Sight

2008-07-29T16:59:00.001-04:00

This post first appeared on Minyanville, and our sister site, Dawn Patrol.

Another month, another attempt to use a single data point to foretell the bottom in the housing market.

On the same day the Case Shiller Home Price Index reported the fastest drop in home prices on record (again), the Wall Street Journal released analysis indicating beaten down markets are beginning to work through inventory overhangs.

Shrinking supply in the most troubled markets is likely a blip, however, as volatile trading in distressed assets is driving the real estate market in these areas.

According to the Journal, metro areas like Sacramento, California, Denver, San Diego and Las Vegas actually reported a decline in housing inventory from a year earlier. Supply is still well above historical averages but, the report argues, if this trend continues it could usher in the end to the real estate slump.

But in cities like Portland, Oregon, Seattle, Charlotte, North Carolina and New York, where home price declines are just beginning, the backlog of unsold homes is piling up. Supply in New York and Portland is up 31% and 28% respectively. Stagnant prices and swelling inventory are signs of a market that's about to crack.

Even in markets poised for a correction, real estate brokers desperate for sales commissions are frantically pounding the table, calling this the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Meanwhile, back in a world still loosely based on reality, easing inventory is a result of changing market dynamics, not an imminent bottom.

First, in troubled areas like California’s Central Valley and Inland Empire, (east of Los Angeles) Phoenix and Las Vegas, foreclosure and other distressed sales account for almost half the total transactions. As vulture funds and other investors swoop in to purchase delinquent mortgages and abandoned houses, such opportunistic buying has reduced inventory.

Small boutique investment firms, big hedge funds and Investment banks like Lehman Brothers (LEH), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Merrill Lynch (MER) are driving these markets. Some are buying foreclosed homes en masse, while others are snapping up delinquent mortgage at a deep discount. As the new owner of the loan tries to sort things out with the borrower, homes previously for sale come off the market.

The majority of these properties, however, will just end up for sale again: Almost half the delinquent mortgages traded in this market ultimately end up in foreclosure. Investment banks and hedge funds aren’t in the business of owning portfolios of residential real estate, so in a few months they’ll start punting homes at further discounted prices.

Second, year-over-year comparisons for real estate and mortgage data are about to get a lot easier. Think back to the beginning of the credit crunch last summer - the mortgage market all but shut down. Real estate transactions ground to a halt, inventory spiked and price declines began to accelerate.

For as bad as the real estate market is today -- and while prices have certainly come down -- activity last year around this time was even worse.

In the next few months, new calls for a bottom will ring out. But given that so-called experts have been calling for a bottom since, well, the top, Minyans would be wise to continue to wait patiently for real signs this has occurred.

New Countrywide Suit Tries To Foreclose Foreclosures

2008-07-25T02:56:00.002-04:00

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

When Bank of America (BAC) agreed to buy Countrywide, it didn’t just take on a mountain of questionably valued mortgage-related assets. It also took on huge legal liability.

San Diego City Attorney Mike Aguirre, who has a penchant for punitive lawsuits that rarely result in much more than a media frenzy, is accusing Countrywide of defrauding thousands of San Diego homeowners. A lawsuit has already been brought at the state level by California Attorney General Jerry Brown, as well as in several other states, including Washington and Illinois.

San Diego's suit takes aim at Countrywide’s alleged practice of coercing borrowers into risky adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). Aguirre hopes to make San Diego a “foreclosure sanctuary” by preventing foreclosure proceedings on any property secured by a subprime ARM where the borrower owes more than the home is worth. (For more on what the glut of upside-down homeowners means for the future of the housing market, please read Finding the Bottom in Housing.)

The litigious City Attorney isn’t satisfied with just taking aim at Countrywide (and, by extension, Bank of America). Aguirre said he’s planning similar suits against Washington Mutual (WM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Wachovia (WB).

While Aguirre’s heart may be in the right place, foreclosure moratoriums aren’t part of the road to recovery for the housing market. Opportunistic mortgage market participants are buying delinquent mortgages on the cheap, forgiving some part of the debt and giving borrowers a fresh start. Government intervention in this process will simply scare off lenders, since they'll have limited recourse if the loan goes sour.

At best, such suits will simply drive up the cost of new mortgages. At worst, they'll bring the recovery process to a standstill.

Foreclosures are nasty, painful and tragic. They are, however, a necessary part of the mortgage process, enabling lenders to recoup losses on bad loans.

Mandating an end to foreclosures is like telling the IRS it can’t go after tax evaders or preventing cops from chasing down burglars. This is not to say victims of foreclosures are criminals or necessarily deserve to be thrown out on the street, but living in a law-abiding society means that contracts must be enforced.

The moment we waive one group’s obligation to honor their collective word, the floodgates are open.

This certainly isn't the last lawsuit we’ll see following the collapse of the mortgage market. In fact, it’s just the tip of the iceberg. A couple years from now, when Option ARMs begin to reset, class action lawsuits will bear down on lenders like a rumbling avalanche rolling down a steep slope.

Banks would be wise to get long some lawyers.

Don't Be a Hero, Wait it Out

2008-07-23T12:45:00.006-04:00

The San Diego Union Tribune reports that San Diego home prices have fallen over 25% in the past year, reaching levels not seen since mid-2003. The median home price in San Diego County now sits at $370,000. Monthly sales volume is down 12.3% from this time last year.

These numbers are a stark reminder of how bad things have gotten in the residential real estate market. Many brokers, television personalities and media outlets are hailing the drop in prices as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Conventional wisdom says its a buyer's market.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

The downward trend in prices these numbers represent is still in full swing, and the underlying forces that caused the downturn show no sign of amelioration. Foreclosures are still occurring at rates not seen for 20 years, meaning that real estate markets will remain flooded with bank-owned properties for the foreseeable future. Lending practices are tight and will remain as such as banks continue to lose money on their loan portfolio's and other real estate investments.

Only those fortunate enough to have saved a sizeable down payment will even be able to consider a home purchase. These conditions alone mean supply far outstrips demand in most markets around the country.

What does all this mean for anyone thinking about buying a home but without any compelling reason to do so immediately?

Wait.

The bottom has been wrongly predicted for months, with each successive group of brave buyers wading into the market, only to be upside down the moment they receive their keys.

It is impossible to call the bottom and predict when home prices will return to a more natural, upward projection. But what is certain is that this “bottom” is many months away at the least, and with the exception of a few well-connected and well-provisioned investors, now is certainly not a buyer’s market.

House of the Day Results: Saint San Ramon

2008-07-16T22:09:00.004-04:00

Click here for details on this House of the Day

Value: $1,750,000
Projection: Depreciating

San Ramon is a desirable part of the East Bay that is located conveniently close to business centers and Pleasanton and Walnut Creek. In recent years, it has attracted Silicon Valley executives looking for bigger homes that they could not afford or are not available in the San Jose area. The subject is specifically located in one of the more desirable locations within San Ramon.

The subject is a large home located in a high end Toll Brothers (TOL) development, where most houses exhibit a high pride of ownership. Area property values are declining, due to the overall decline in the local economy and the lack of available credit. There are two equivalent properties listed within 0.5 miles for less than $1.9 million, which would represent the maximum value for the house.

There are 7 properties listed in the subject's development, with only 2 sales in the past 6 months. The lack of comparable sales in the development suggests a lack of qualified and willing buyers in the area.

Due to the large amount of supply and few sales in the area, even though the property is one the nicer homes in the development, it will still have a hard time selling. We value it at $1,750,000, the lower bound of recent listings, although higher than recent sales, which are all of inferior quality.

Click on the image below for the CLEAR for this property.

House of the Day: Saint San Ramon

2008-07-16T18:14:00.004-04:00

Click here for the results of this House of the Day

Today's property is located in the San Ramon hills, in a high-end Toll Brothers (TOL) development.

(Click for a larger image)

Home Details:
- 3340 Ashbourne Cir., San Ramon, CA 94583
- 5 Bedrooms
- 5 Bathrooms
- 5,320 square foot living area
- 19,010 square foot lot
- Built in 2006
- Recent (only) sale 12/26/06 for $2,030,000

Although this home is not for sale, here is some information about a home down the street in the same development.

"Nestled in the western hills of the San Ramon Valley, Norris Canyon Estates is a guard gated community offering hundreds of acres of open hillsides with the Las Trampas Range as a backdrop. The spacious homesites are complemented by a neighborhood park, creek-side trail, majestic oak trees, and spectacular hillsides, providing a perfect blend of natural and urban lifestyles."

**Periodically, Cirios Real Estate posts a home listed in California as its "House of the Day." At 4pm that afternoon, we post a full valuation assessment completed by our team of property value experts. We encourage our readers to post comments and participate in a discussion about the home's value.

Cirios Real Estate has no buying or selling interest in any of the homes we evaluate, they are posted here for the benefit of our community. This analysis is a broker's opinion of value and is not to be construed as an appraisal.

Gas Prices Effects On the Home

2008-07-16T18:10:00.003-04:00

This post first appeared on Minyanville.

I came upon an interesting report out from Deutsche Bank on the effect high gas prices are having on home prices. Below are some highlights:

Gas prices are up 167% in the last five years, 32% in the last year.
Monthly gas expenditure is up to $519 in June '08 from $173 in June '02.
$54,000 in home price purchasing power has been lost in the last five years; $22,000 in the last year alone (Inland Empire, CA is the worst at 46% lost in the last five years).
As measured by increased monthly expenses and translated into mortgage payment terms, the impact of rising gas prices is equivalent to a 2.47% increase in mortgage rates over the last five years; 0.98% in the last year (Inland Empire is again the worst at a 4.35% effective increase over five years).
Deutsche sees non-bubble areas like Texas and the South more exposed to gas price increases than bubble states, due to long commute distances and low relative home prices.
Homebuilders are being negatively effected by this trend, particularly in developments far away from the city center.
Builders will likely switch strategies and focus on urban "infill" and closer-in townhome projects.
According to Deutsche, Meritage Homes (MTH), Ryland (RYL) and Lennar (LEN) have the most exposure to highly impacted areas; MDC Holdings (MDC), NVR (NVR) and Toll Brothers (TOL) have the lowest exposure.

Mortgage Reform: Why Government Intelligence is Oxymoron

2008-07-15T12:18:00.001-04:00

This post first appeared on Minyanville and our sister site Dawn Patrol.

After leading the banking sector to its largest ever one-day drop yesterday, Washington Mutual (WM), in an effort to assuage concerns that it's facing a cash crunch, released a statement claiming that the bank is "well-capitalized."

Though the stock bucked the trend this morning as the broader financial complex continued its unrelenting sell-off, shareholders aren’t likely to be comforted by the WaMu’s pleas for calm.

The largest savings-and-loan in the country has seen share prices fall below $4 following the seizure of IndyMac (IMB) by benevolent federal banking regulators; investors fear WaMu could be next.

IndyMac was reopened on Monday to handle endless lines of depositors hoping to recover their pennies from the bank’s coffers.

In a stark reminder of just how dicey bottom-picking can be, Bloomberg reminded us that private-equity firm TPG led a consortium of investors in providing the bank with $7 billion in much-needed cash in April, when the stock traded at $13. Those daring saviors have seen most of their investment wiped out.

TPG did, however, slip a protective clause into the deal: If the stock drops below $8.75 -- which it clearly has -- TPG is owed the difference, effectively putting the bank on the hook for its own equity losses. While protecting TPG's investment, this feature also makes it considerably more costly, if not impossible, for the bank to raise more capital, which would further dilute shares.

As more details emerge about these and other onerous terms with which banks have been forced to agree in their efforts to raise capital, it's becoming clear just how misguidedly optimistic investors were when such deals were first announced. Banking expert Minyan Peter wrote of the WaMu deal:

“I think the problem for most market participants right now is the assumption [that] what we're experiencing looks something like 'their prior experiences in banking crises.' And to me, that's why we have seen such a big rally over the past two weeks -- because, based on prior experience, a rally feels very right, right about now.

But for all the reasons I shared before, this one is different.”

We’re now seeing just how different this one is.

Professor Depew explained Friday how the Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) crisis is different from the Long-Term Capital Management failure in 1998: In this case, massive losses by financial institutions around the world are a symptom, not the cause.

A few misplaced bets aren’t to blame for the market turmoil; neither is rumor-mongering. The financial system’s problems, and by extension the economy’s, are rooted in years of mispriced risk and excessive leverage. Markets are now witnessing the destruction of that debt at a rate that’s stomach-churning to the traditional buy-and-hold investor.

The process, though painful, is necessary. The debt will be destroyed, firms will go out of business and the economy will slow, if not contract. All this is healthy. Agonizing, to be sure, but healthy.

As Toddo wrote yesterday on the Buzz and Banter, “The big picture blues will lead to an unfortunate destination, but that’s necessary to rebuild the foundation for sustainable economic growth. Once we get there, those with capital will be in a fantastic position to prosper.”

The Silent Killer

2008-07-14T22:39:00.000-04:00

What's the silent killer that's been largely ignored by the financial media as it tries to keep up with the quickly unraveling mortgage crisis? Fraud.

While there are many causes for the current meltdown, the most unexplored and and least discussed is fraud. FraudBlogger.com reported yesterday that there were $1.7 billion active cases of criminal and civil fraud reported in the second quarter of 2008.

While large, this number is painfully low and doesn't come close to capturing what was really going on in the mortgage origination business from 2005-2007. Every time a loan officer put a borrower into a loan he couldn't afford or didn't understand, the loan officer committed fraud. The vast majority of these loans are still out there, and the tabulated fraud data doesn't pick them up.

Every time an appraiser valued a property based on the lender's demand for an overstated value, the appraiser committed fraud. You and I, the taxpayers, will now get to foot the bill for all that equity appraisers created out of thin air to maintain the facade of unbiased property valuations.

Every time an accountant booked the fully amortized interest payment as income for an Option-ARM borrower making the minimum payment, while adhering to GAAP, we can all agree there isn't any chance that money will find its way to the bank's coffers. By the time the loan's written off, it will be lost in a web of billions in writedowns, and the accountant will be on to mis-pricing some other asset sitting on the bank's books.

And people still wonder why the mortgage mess keeps getting worse than even the most boogly bears have expected.

New Mortgages ... Rule!

2008-07-14T17:11:00.003-04:00

Below are some details on the Fed's proposed new mortgage rules courtesy of Briefing.com:

New final mortgage rules ban prepayment penalties if payment can rise in first 4 years.
New rules create category of 'higher-priced mortgages' including virtually all subprime loans.
Lenders must verify repayment ability from income, non-home assets for higher-priced mortgages.
Lenders must assess repayment ability on highest scheduled payment in first 7 years of mortgage.
Lenders must establish property tax, insurance escrow on higher-priced first-lien mortgages.
Lenders may offer borrowers opportunity to cancel escrow account after one year.
Creditors must provide estimate of mortgage costs, payment schedule,within 3 days of application

If mortgage regulators can enforce their new rules on "higher-priced mortgages," at least as well as they do for "high-cost mortgages," (which they actually do surprisingly well) this new category of home loan means one thing: don't bother applying for a mortgage unless you have nearly spotless credit and money in the bank.

And while many would argue this is a much needed change in the mortgage market, it does raise a few questions:

Won't this further increase demand for rental units?
Won't this force people to save if they want to own a home?
Isn't money saved different than money spent?
Where was this legislation in 2006, at the height of the boom, even when regulators knew what was going on?
Why do regulators seem to focus so much on making new rules, rather than enforcing the old ones?
If the mortgage market figured out how to get around the old, "high cost loan" limitations, won't it eventually work its way around these as well?

House of the Day Results: Swinging into Stanton

2008-07-14T16:58:00.003-04:00

Click here for details on this House of the Day.

Value: $350,000
Projection: Depreciating

The subject property is located in Orange County, which is experiencing a slump in the local economy due to the collapse of the mortgage market. In addition, the subject should expect to see further declines in value because it has only one bathroom.

You will notice we often mention property's with only one bathroom negatively. In a market flush with supply of homes, prospective buyers will be much more attracted to homes with more than one bathroom. Thus, we believe one bathrooms homes are at an extreme disadvantage and must be priced much more aggressively to sell. From our research, this fact is overlooked by most brokers and as a result one bathroom homes are typically over listed.

10301 MacDuff St, a superior home, sold for $370,000 in April. Due to the fact that the property has only one bathroom, coupled with the weak economy and rising fuel prices, we don't see strong demand for this type of property. Most listings in the area are substantially higher than our subject's estimated value, and we expect those homes to sell below the listing price.

We value the subject property at $350,000 and expect it to see declines in the coming months.

House of the Day: Swinging into Stanton

2008-07-11T13:24:00.006-04:00

Click here for the results of this House of the Day.

Today's property is located in Stanton, CA a suburban neighborhood smack in the middle of Orange County.

(Click to enlarge image)

Home Details:
- 8511 Chanticleer Rd, Stanton, CA 90680
- 3 Bedrooms
- 1 Bathrooms
- 1347 square feet living area
- 0.17 acres
- Built in 1956
- "Recent" sale 2/27/1987 for $120,000

Property is not currently listed, no description available.

**Periodically, Cirios Real Estate posts a home listed in California as its "House of the Day." At 4pm that afternoon, we post a full valuation assessment completed by our team of property value experts. We encourage our readers to post comments and participate in a discussion about the home's value.

Cirios Real Estate has no buying or selling interest in any of the homes we evaluate, they are posted here for the benefit of our community. This analysis is a broker's opinion of value and is not to be construed as an appraisal.

Lone Voice Calls for Intelligent Mortgage Reform

2008-07-10T21:30:00.003-04:00

While Congress deliberates on the future of the nation’s mortgage market, some within the government are calling for restraint in regulatory reform. Housingwire.com reports William Emmons, an economist at the St. Louis Fed, is calling for patience and social support as the clearest way to economic recovery.

Emmons makes the argument that government intervention, particularly measures aimed at postponing or eliminating the foreclosure process, will only serve to further tighten the credit crunch that already holds the nation’s economy in its teeth. Instead, he believes Federal funds and regulations should be aimed at helping foreclosed homeowners recover from their unsuccessful forays into homeownership. By focusing on the “cause,” rather than the “symptoms” of our current economic woes, and by allowing markets to sort themselves out, Emmons argues prudent, forward-looking regulatory reforms offer us the fastest route to economic health.

Whatever your opinion on upcoming regulatory reforms, it is clear the actions of the government in the coming months will have a massive impact on housing markets and the economy as a whole. Reforms that promote a healthy and functioning mortgage market while protecting borrowers from the types of abuses so prevalent during the boom will allow investors and homeowners alike to make the right choices in the coming years.

House of the Day Results: Stuck on Stockton

2008-07-09T16:28:00.000-04:00

Click here for details on this House of the Day

Value: $120,000
Projection: Depreciating

Stockton is arguably the most publicized declining real estate market in the United States. Foreclosure and REO (Real Estate Owner, or Bank Owned) activity is very high, and values have declined precipitously in the past 12 months. The subject's neighborhood itself is aging, with many new developments in the vicinity providing an alternative to these older homes.

The subject property has not been immune to these declines and is further hampered by its location on a major four-lane street on the Northeast side of the city. This section of the city is dominated by 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom properties, compared to the property’s 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths.

1901 Bradford Ave sold in January for $105,000, but is inferior to the subject based on its smaller lot and one fewer bedrooms. 1220 Sycamore St sold in April for $150,000 but is superior to the subject based on location and curb appeal.

1240 Wilson St is currently listed at $109,900 but is inferior to the subject based on its larger lot size.

The subject has bars and windows on its doors, reducing curb appeal and forcing us to be more conservative than normal. We value the property at $120,000 to reflect a middle ground between the two sales listed above, erring on the side of caution.

Credit Contraction Continues

2008-07-09T15:35:00.002-04:00

In further evidence of the ongoing credit contraction, Mortgagedaily.com reports Lehman Brothers is shuttering its Small Business Finance unit. The division made small commercial mortgage loans to individuals and corporations. The closure is the latest in Lehman's efforts to shrink its mortgage business and reduce exposure to the US housing market.

Lenders everywhere are reducing access to credit, even as struggling consumers need it most to make ends meet. As banks and other financial companies delever, credit-dependent Americans will find it harder and harder to maintain their spend-happy ways.

House of the Day: Stuck on Stockton

2008-07-09T13:40:00.007-04:00

This morning's property's is located in Stockton, CA -- what more needs to be said? Guess the value by adding a comment at the bottom of this post.

(Click for a large image)

Home Details:
- 1740 West Lane, Stockton, CA 95205
- 3 bedrooms
- 1.5 bathrooms
- 1,224 square feet
- 0.23 acres
- Built in 1951
- Recent sale: 4/6/06 for $300,000

"This 1/4 lot with a huge backyard w/ alley access. RV access and storage. Must see!! Do not disturb occupants - sold as is, sellers not providing any reports or clearances."

Good luck!

**Periodically, Cirios Real Estate posts a home listed in California as its "House of the Day." At 4pm that afternoon, we post a full valuation assessment completed by our team of property value experts. We encourage our readers to post comments and participate in a discussion about the home's value.

Cirios Real Estate has no buying or selling interest in any of the homes we evaluate, they are posted here for the benefit of our community. This analysis is a broker's opinion of value and is not to be construed as an appraisal.

California, New York Lend a Hand to Struggling Borrowers

2008-07-07T22:40:00.003-04:00

The real estate and mortgage industries are busy battening down the hatches for the inevitable tidal wave of regulatory reform. Meanwhile, Housingwire.com reports government officials are already hard at work trying to outdo each other as the protector of the “everyday common household victim” of our “national crisis.”

Two illustrative examples of regulatory restructuring have been rolled out in last two months. In New York State, legislators passed a series of measures essentially placing a one-year moratorium on foreclosures. Under the program, borrowers already in default will pay a nominal monthly sum and be eligible for state funds to supplement existing mortgage obligations.

In California, lawmakers passed legislation that would require more extensive notification for delinquent borrowers before the foreclosure process can begin. Homeowners would be entitled to meetings with servicers to learn their restructuring options, placing a greater onus of responsibility on servicers to reach out to borrowers prior to beginning foreclosure proceedings.

Both measures are designed to ease pressures on distressed borrowers, but the New York plans go well beyond those in California. The California laws are designed to ensure increased communication between borrower and lender. The New York law is designed to put a halt to the process of foreclosure, presumably to await more extensive reforms or bailout plans still to come.

In both states, these measures mark the tip of the iceberg in the process of reforming regulatory frameworks for mortgage lending. In this election year, public support is swelling for pieces of legislation like these and even larger moves are likely on their way.

The challenge for regulators -- and the lobbyists so generously pleading their case -- is to enact rules and enforcement schemes that prevent fraud and predatory lending, without being too constrictive to legitimate business. Many such rules already exist; it remains to be seen if the fallout from the collapse of the mortgage industry can convince regulators to enforce their own rules.

House of the Day Results: Falling Over Fallbrook

2008-07-07T19:19:00.006-04:00

Click here for details on this House of the Day

Value: $250,000
Projection: Depreciating

Fallbrook is located in Eastern San Diego County, just south of Temecula along Interstate 5. The city and the surrounding area are being adversely effected by the economic slowdown, as much of the growth in the area was due to new home construction. High gas prices are also weighing on consumer spending in an area dominated by commuters. As a result, home prices have fallen dramatically from their peak in late 2005 and continue to fall.

Our property is centrally located, making it more desirable than those on the outskirts of town. There are, however, many listings in the subject's immediate vicinity. The property also requires some "TLC," which indicates its condition is likely inferior to its neighbors. Listings in the area range from $273,900 - $549,000. Only three properties have sold in the area since April 15th, all of which are superior in quality to the subject.

515 Shady Glen road - aside from having a suspect address - is a similarly sized home, but in turn key condition. It sold for $265,000 on 6/19/08. The subject is on a slightly larger lot, but the inferior condition, combined with the weak local economy, high gas prices and an oversupply of houses place the value of the subject property at $250,000. Further declines are likely in the near future.

House of the Day: Falling Over Fallbrook

2008-07-03T20:58:00.005-04:00

Click here for the results of this House of the Day

This morning's House of the Day is located in the inland hamlet of Fallbrook, CA. Guess the value by adding a comment to this post.

(Click for a larger image)

Home Details:
- 968 La Vonne Ave, Fallbrook, CA 92028
- 3 Bedrooms
- 2 Bathrooms
- 1,755 square feet
- 0.23 acres
- Built in 1982

"Located at the end of cul-de-sac, quiet street, close to village but far enough with country feel. Open floor plan. Master bedroom has large walk-in closet and spacious bath. Lots of potential, needs some TLC. This is a great buy for a first time buyer. Bank owned."

The Cirios Real Estate Zip Code Report can be found by clicking the image below.

**Each morning Cirios Real Estate posts a home listed in California as its "House of the Day." At 4pm each afternoon, we post a full valuation assessment completed by our team of property value experts. We encourage our readers to post comments and participate in a discussion about the home's value.

Cirios Real Estate has no buying or selling interest in any of the homes we evaluate, they are posted here for the benefit of our community. This analysis is a broker's opinion of value and is not to be construed as an appraisal.

HOPE when?

2008-07-03T19:00:00.008-04:00

Washington’s war on foreclosures, the latest in a string of sycophantic attempts to sway public opinion back in the favor of the very regulators that turned a blind eye to rampant irresponsible lending, is now being waged with carefully crafted press releases.

In the past two days, strikingly contradictory reports have emerged over the status of mortgage servicers’ efforts to stem the rising tide of foreclosures.

According to MortgageDaily.com, HOPE NOW is out with data showing it’s successfully preventing thousands of foreclosures. The servicing collective claims it prevented 170,000 foreclosures in May alone, and that almost 2 million repossessions have been averted since the program launched a year ago.

Consumer groups, on the other hand, aren’t so sure. Paul Jackson’s Housing Wire reports the California Reinvestment Coalition (CRC), advocates for low-income communities, says servicers are failing to keep troubled borrowers in their homes.

Jackson aptly points out that while both sides are engaged in an active public relations battle, what’s clear is that public perception about homeownership and lending practices is changing.

Irrespective of the data HOPE NOW or groups like the CRC gather and disseminate, defaults and the massive logistics required to work out the resulting situations have overwhelmed the loan servicing industry. No amount of government handouts, working groups or contrived federal lending facilities can contain the avalanche of home repossessions that’s already started down the hill.

Housing misconceptions

2008-05-12T10:43:00.005-04:00

Mike "Mish" Shedlock points out this morning that the housing bust is not unique to the United States. Spain and Australia, in addition to the U.K. are seeing home prices fall, and pounds and euros are evaporating in the process.

One comment stood out today in Mish's post -

Because the rise in inflation (money supply and credit) fueled asset
prices in the 1990's, the housing bubble from 2001 to 2006, and stocks
from 2003 until recently. None of this was properly measured for the
simple reason it is impossible to measure the effect of credit inflation on
the stock market or housing market.

The misguided hope that housing prices are at or near the bottom ignores the reason for the boom during the earlier part of the decade. As Mish points out, prices were not driven by an increased ability to pay. Instead, unnaturally low interest rates fueled creative lending which fueled speculation which fueled creative lending which fueled speculation.

The chart below courtesy of James Ballenger, shows home prices vs. incomes during the housing boom. Banking on appreciation is wishful thinking as long as banks are wary to lend.

Creative lending is not coming back any time soon, income growth is stagnant, and the economy - by most intelligent measures - is already in recession. Anyone in the market for a home should be patient. Don't try and catch a falling knife. Even if prices don't fall too much further from here, they won't rebound any time soon. There's plenty of time to find the right deal.

Check out our sister site, Dawn Patrol.