The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released monthly housing data today that shows existing-home sales in July increased by a seasonally adjusted 3.1%. While this number may seem exciting and could be interpreted as a thaw in the housing crisis, most other data point in the opposite direction.
Deeper into the report, the NAR mentions that inventories, which currently represent 11.2 months of supply, are at highs not seen since the 1980’s. Additionally, the report states median home prices have fallen 7.1% year over year and sales volume is down 13.2% year over year. The NAR doesn’t provide month over month median price data, citing “mix of homes issues” that are conveniently overlooked in the positive sales volume data.
While this report falls short of “calling the bottom” in the housing market (a tack often taken in NAR economic reports), the NAR has once again obfuscated the true state of real estate markets by focusing on the single positive datum in the entire report.
Yes, there was a blip in sales in the past month, but in the larger picture things remain bleak. Almost 40% of sales were distressed transactions, which is hardly indicative of a market that's poised to rebound. It will take more than a single month of increased volume to convince any rational observer that things are truly on the mend.
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